It will have been very easy for Londoners to have responded to the end of the recent heatwave with the thought: “Well, that was fun while it lasted”. But there really is no reason to think summer is over yet.
While it is certainly the case that the sudden shift from shorts and sun hats to thunderstorms and flash floods has been a huge reality check, it should be remembered that these kinds of events have always been part of Britain’s capricious meteorology, even if climate change is adding an extra edge to it.
There are still lots of good reasons to think that the sunshine will be back soon, which will be good news for anyone with a cylinder of BBQ gas in north London, as well as outdoor activities in the school holidays.
Looking at recent August weather patterns in London is a good guide to what might happen. Last year, the hottest day was August 7th at 36 degrees C. In 2019 it was 33 degrees, and in 2018 it was 32 degrees. Not since 2017 has August in London not had any days over 30 C.
Overall, the average for the month has been running at around 18-19 degrees, which suggests it will remain warm.
All this indicates that it is likely there will still be some very hot days still ahead before summer is done, so there may be many good days for a BBQ yet, although there may also be some wet days.
Of course, much attention will be paid to the question of whether the recent fall in Covid cases was a brief blip before the opening up that took place on July 19th starts feeding through into higher numbers, or the beginning of the end of the third wave.
If it is the latter, that will make gatherings safer and help people enjoy their BBQ days even more.